After years of turbulence, the UK housing market is showing signs of resilience. Declining mortgage rates and renewed political stability have contributed to a rebound in house prices. But with memories of recent market volatility still fresh, many are asking: Do we need to worry about a UK housing market crash? This article delves into the current state of the property market and explores whether such concerns are warranted.

The Mini Budget 2022 and Its Aftermath
The Mini Budget of 2022 marked the beginning of a chaotic period for the UK housing market. House prices had soared to record highs that summer, but the budget’s aftermath saw them crumble as mortgage rates skyrocketed. Buyers retreated, lenders tightened their belts, and inflation eroded the value of savings. By mid-2023, mortgage rates spiked again, fueling fears of a prolonged housing slump. The Bank of England’s aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation added to the market’s uncertainty.

Renewed Optimism: Rate Cuts and Government Initiatives
Relief finally arrived with the Bank of England’s rate cuts in August and November 2024, making mortgage rates more affordable. The new government further boosted investor confidence by introducing policies aimed at rejuvenating the housing market. Ambitious housebuilding targets and the “Freedom to Buy” scheme for first-time buyers have injected fresh energy into the property sector.
What Is the Current Situation of the UK Property Market?
To grasp the present state of the UK housing market, examining sold house prices offers valuable insights. Recent data shows that October’s average house prices have eclipsed the pandemic peak, posting the fastest annual growth since late 2022. However, uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget has tempered this momentum. Annual price growth slowed from 3.2% in September to 2.4% in October as buyers paused before the budget announcement.

Despite this slowdown, the outlook is not gloomy. Real estate agencies report that property sales are on track to hit a four-year high, setting the stage for a reinvigorated housing market.
Are Asking Prices Rising?
While sold prices reflect decisions made months prior, asking prices provide a more immediate snapshot of the market. In October, asking prices rose by 0.3%, below the typical 1.3% hike expected for the month. This indicates a slow but steady progress.
Other indicators suggest brighter days ahead. Data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) points to growing optimism among estate agents. In September, more agents reported expectations of rising house prices as market activity picked up and both buyers and sellers returned.
Is a Housing Market Crash on the Horizon?
Forecasting the future of UK house prices is inherently challenging due to numerous influencing factors. However, the general outlook appears positive. Falling swap rates suggest that financial markets are already pricing in further rate cuts. Major players in real estate remain optimistic, with analysts predicting a 2% to 2.5% rise in average house prices next year.

Based on current indicators, concerns about a UK housing market crash seem unwarranted. The combination of falling mortgage rates, government initiatives, and renewed market confidence points toward continued growth. While investors should remain vigilant, trends suggest that house prices will rise and the property market will continue to thrive.
UK Property Accountants is a leading firm of chartered certified accountants and chartered tax advisers specializing in the property and real estate sector, headquartered in Central London. For expert advice and guidance on UK property matters, feel free to contact us.